Tinubu, Osinbajo In The Eyes of The North


For APC presidential candidate, the northern delegates to a larger extent will decide who emerges between Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo if President Buhari will be neutral.

This is because their political interest is more influenced by the unity of this country rather than money that will enter their pockets or the academic brilliance of any aspirant. The north is not moved by oration, neither can anybody buy them from Nigeria unity agenda. They will not compromise.

Of course they will take money but their agenda is keeping the country together even when they are not in power, they must be sure that they can control who is in power from the back end when they are not at the driver seat

Along religious line, they want somebody who will reason with them that they are not bigots and a person that will not be easily influenced by his own religious belief or any religious organisation.

In view of this, some of these political elite from the north see Osinbajo as a man with the fear of God, a good listener that can easily be approached but his stamina to hold the country in turbulent time comes to mind.

However for Osinbajo to become the next Nigerian president, he must be ready to play cards with the cabal. These cabal will not compromise Nigeria as an entity. His academic quality will not make them clap for him. It is in the south that we hype intellectualism, the north celebrates power.

Osinbajo’s performance each time President Muhammadu Buhari is out of town has always shown flashes of his leadership capability but then some of the cabals hate those moves. They have their own script, which must be acted as planned.

We should not forget quickly that a powerful member of Buhari’s cabinet once bypassed Osinbajo, an acting president. He flew abroad to meet an ailing Buhari to approve some documents.

The cabal in the Buhari’s cabinet are only representing the larger one outside the government. They are powerful and will not mind giving Osinbajo the support he needs now so that they can also have their way.

The north doesn’t joke with power, Senator Adeseye Ogunlewe said this recently, adding that he had seen it all as a federal legislator.

He said that the northern oligarchy may concede so many things to any other ethnic group but not its rulership, which it dictates behind the scene.

Ogunlewe’s submission reminds me of the pressure Nigerians had to mount on the cabal to allow President Goodluck Jonathan to take over at the demise of President Umoru Yar’Adua.

The constitution is very loud over this but the power that be was not ready to follow the rule. It wasn’t because they hated Jonathan but they were not comfortable with the zone he had come from, the south-south, his capability to keep the country together at the instance of the Niger Delta militants.

This is the same factor that will make any Igbo aspirant unpopular today. Not even now that the IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu is in government custody. The north will not risk backing an Igbo person for now. IPOB and Nnamdi in mind. I do not even see PDP giving its ticket to Igbo.

In the southwest, the supporters of Tinubu and Osinbajo are also divided, however the rating will favour Tinubu more because of its structure. Osinbajo cannot break this network easily, not even now that Lagos stands firm behind BAT.

In the east, the delegates naturally will prefer Rotimi Amaechi in the event that none of theirs emerges. They will also have soft spot for Osinbajo from religion angle but they can choose Tinubu if the “logic’ will favour them on individual basis. And I think the logic will favour them with Tinubu here.

With the way things are going, Tinubu is more popular in the north than any other aspirant. He does not need to organise crowd as Osinbajo’s support group did after his declaration but the question is about the cabal who may not see him as a “Yes Man”.

Tinubu has a dream of how he wants this country to be and will definitely come up with his own idea, his own template without jeopardising the unity of the country. Will he listen to the northern power brokers, Yes. Will he do their bidding, I’m not sure. He will only make them to reason with him about his plans on how to rebuild this country.

Both Tinubu and Osinbajo are at crossroads because their presidency goes beyond what they have got to offer the country but their readiness to walk the agenda of the northern oligarchy. This is what Tinubu has been spending much of his time to resolve, making himself available for the north to assess and support. He may get it after all.


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